ATS Bowl Predictions for 12/18: Will BYU Crush UTEP In New Mexico?

89-83 is how the Lady ended the college football season. The goal was to get above .500—mission accomplished. Now, it's time to go bowling and the record starts anew.

The first week of bowl season starts on Saturday afternoon as BYU takes on the The University of Texas-El Paso (UTEP) in New Mexico at high noon.

Admittedly, UTEP hasn't been seen very much—aside from an epic walloping they sustained at the hand of Houston—so there is little to be said about how good or bad they truly are this season.

That said, bowl games, particularly those played after several weeks of rest and against an unknown conference, tend to be full of drama. So, UTEP has just as much of an opportunity to win this game as BYU does. Even still, the late season turnaround by the Cougars gives them the edge here.

Jake Heaps began to gain confidence towards the end of his freshman season and seemed more comfortable in the Cougar's offense. He will be their biggest asset this weekend as the game will be won or lost on his play.

That said, let's jump right in with my spread picks for the following games—of which there are three. All lines appear courtesy of VegasInsider.com:

December 18th 

1. BYU vs. UTEP, New Mexico Bowl: BYU (-11.5)

The  Cougars woke up mid-season and showed signs that 2011 would be a much better campaign than 2010.  The Miners have suffered their most crushing losses at the hands of teams with good passing quarterbacks—their secondary cannot keep up. BYU should cruise in this one.

The Lady's Pick: BYU to cover

2. Northern Illinois at Fresno State, Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois (-1.5)

Honestly, if nothing else, the weather will play a huge role in this game. There is plenty of reason to doubt the effectiveness of the Bulldogs in a game where the possibility of snow looms large, against a team with a better than average defense.

The Lady's Pick: Northern Illinois to cover

3. Ohio at Troy, New Orleans Bowl: Troy (-1.5)

You may as well toss a coin to pick this game but, since that's too lame a thing to do, lets just go on history—the MAC plays well against the Sun Belt (4-1). Troy might be favored in  what is likely to be a close game, but go with Ohio.

The Lady's Pick: Ohio to cover

With TCU Accepting a Big East Invite, Boise State Is Back At Square One

Boise State could not have imagined that their decision to leave the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) for the Mountain West Conference (MWC) would have been met by such an utter upheaval.

In the time since the Broncos made said decision to leave the "Little Sisters of the Poor" (AKA Gordon Gee's description of Boise's conference mates) behind, the strongest members of the MWC (BYU, Utah, and TCU) have all jumped ship.

Utah accepted an invite in mid-June to join the Pac-10. Shortly thereafter, BYU decided to become an independent in football—with all their other sports joining the West Coast Conference. Now, today, TCU has accepted an invitation to join the Big East conference.

The latter action has to have the powers that be at Boise State scratching their collective heads—essentially, the MWC just became the WAC.

Boise is no longer adding it's strong record and television appeal to a major, non-BCS, conference in the hopes of making it legitimate but, rather, joining a conference that will now be looking to them for any form of legitimacy—talk about getting the short end.

While you can hardly blame Utah, BYU, or TCU for trying to get their shot at an automatic qualifying (AQ) bid in a BCS conference, you have to feel a little sorry for Boise State because they just seem to keep missing out on acceptance.

Seriously, what can they possibly do now? They will be in no better a position in 2011 than they were in 2010.

Of course the MWC will add more teams, but with BYU and Utah now gone,  and TCU exiting in 2012, how many advertisers will be chomping at the bit to see MWC games on national television—in primetime? Better still, what does this mean for the Mountain West's network? Boise might be a media darling, but they aren't a huge draw all by themselves—and no one is going to be lining up to see them play Colorado State, New Mexico, or Wyoming.

Boise State can't seem to catch a break. They're either damned if they do, or damned if they don't and they have to be feeling a bit piled on by this point. Perhaps they've been right all along—no teams want to play them.

The Utah Utes Battle Back to Win The "Holy War" Against BYU

The Utah Utes were favored by better than nine coming into the annual 'Holy War' contest versus the BYU Cougars—in Salt Lake City. However, someone forgot to deliver the memo to the Cougars who, in their last five games, have resembled something very different than the team that was demolished by TCU, 31-3, just six-weeks ago, and they didn't seem willing to get on their knees for the Utes today.

Jake Heaps, the biggest catch of BYU's 2010 recruiting class, has become the leader that Bronco Mendenhall wanted him to be as the true frosh has grown into a pretty good quarterback—one whose future looks bright if his positive trajectory continues as it has thus far.

Despite BYU's inability to do anything offensively for better than three quarters, the Cougar's defense played above average today—holding the Utes to zero points through three and forcing three interceptions. 

Unfortunately for the Cougars, four quarters of football is needed to seal a win and the Utes came alive late in the game, scoring 17-points and assuming a 1-point lead with less than 5:00 left in the game.

BYU was able to drive the ball down the field, getting into field goal range but, with time expiring, the would be winning kick was blocked—Utes win.

It was another "Holy War" for the ages and now, with BYU leaving the Mountain West and Utah headed to the Pac-10, one has to wonder if this annual rite of passage for these two proud universities will remain as passionate as it is now.

College Football ATS Picks: Can Nevada Stop Boise State's Winning Streak?

The Lady fared a bit better last week—thank goodness—going 10-5 on the day and moving the overall record to 66-69. The drive towards a strong finish ends with this week's slate, so let's not waste any more time.

Most lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com (the Auburn/Alabama line is from Vegas.com since VegasInsider.com had no line as of late Thursday evening) and are current as of Thanksgiving Day.

1. West Virginia at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh (-3)

This game is hard to predict, honestly, because both teams have shown they can be either really good or dreadfully bad. That said, the home field advantage has to be the difference here.

The Lady's Pick: Pittsburgh to cover.

2. Louisville at Rutgers: Louisville (-3)

Both teams enter this game with a losing streak and only one of them will have a bowl bid to gain by winning.

The Lady's Pick: Louisville to cover.

3. Auburn at Alabama: Alabama (-4.5)

Auburn is good, there is no way around that fact, and no team has had an answer for Cam Newton this season. As good as the Alabama defense has shown it can be this year, it seems unlikely that they have enough left in the tank to face another team coming off a bye week with a ton of momentum and an eye towards the brass ring.

The Lady's Pick: Auburn to cover.

4. UCLA at Arizona State: Arizona State (-12.5)

UCLA has not played well on the road and Arizona State seems to play at another level inside Sun Devil Stadium—remember how tight they played Oregon?

The Lady's Pick: Arizona State to cover.

5. Colorado at Nebraska: Nebraska (-16.5)

Sure, the Buffaloes manhandled Iowa State last week but, let's face it, Iowa State isn't nearly as good as advertised and Colorado is really this bad. With or without Taylor Martinez leading the charge, the Cornhuskers should have no problem controlling the tempo or the end zone in this one.

The Lady's Pick: Nebraska to cover.

6. Arizona at Oregon: Oregon (-19)

Oregon plays lights out at home. This week will not be any different.

The Lady's Pick: Oregon to cover.

7. Boise State at Nevada: Boise State (-14)

This game will actually be the biggest test Boise has faced, in-conference, all season as Nevada resembles something closer to a Division-I football team—much unlike the patsies the Broncos have come up against all year. That said, it will still be a bit surprising if the Wolfpack pulls out the win (especially given the overall dominance Boise has in this series).


The Lady's Pick: Nevada to cover.

8. Michigan at Ohio State: Ohio State (-17)

If Michigan had anything that closely resembled a defense, this game might actually be a bit closer—particularly if you could have any faith that Denard Robinson would both play and finish the game. However, given the fact that neither the latter or the former has been likely over the last few weeks, it's hard not to see Ohio State and Terrelle Pryor dominating this game.

The Lady's Pick: Ohio State to cover.


9. Indiana at Purdue: Purdue (-3)

Purdue showed some signs of life last week against a stout Michigan State team and this has to be one of those games where the bragging rights could give the Boilermakers just enough motivation to, finally, get another win.

The Lady's Pick: Purdue


10. Kentucky at Tennessee: Tennessee (-3)

Tennessee seems to have found the right guy to lead their offense in Tyler Bray, and if their defense can find a way to play hard, in an SEC contest, for the full 60 minutes, they should have no problem getting win number six on Saturday.

The Lady's Pick: Tennessee

The Lady's SUPERSIZED Luck Picks (time to go all-in to get above .500)


11. Clemson (+2.5) vs. South Carolina


12. Connecticut (-1) vs. Cincinnati

13. Wisconsin (+23) vs. Northwestern


14. Vanderbilt (-5.5) vs. Wake Forest


15. Iowa (-15.5) at Minnesota


16. Virginia Tech (+23) vs. Virginia


17. Utah (-9) vs. BYU


18. Stanford (-13.5) vs. Oregon State


19. Arkansas (-3.5) vs. LSU


20. Penn State (+1.5) vs. Michigan State

College Football Odds (ATS): Alabama Will Roll, Michigan Will Rebound

It was yet another average week for the 'Lady', as the site finished the weekend slate at 5-5, bringing the season total to 27-28.

You can revisit last week's picks here.

The BCS will release it's first set of rankings this Sunday, so expect a lot of good play from teams auditioning for a place in the top 10.

That said, it's time to offer another round of picks.

(All lines are courtesy of  VegasInsider.com).

1. Alabama vs. Ole Miss: Alabama (-20.5)

This actually seems like a ton of points to lend the Tide's way—even if they are playing in Tuscaloosa. That said, the Rebels aren't very good on defense.

Look for both Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson to get something they didn't last week—running room—and look for the Tide to take out their frustration on the Rebels.

The Lady's Pick: Alabama

2. Michigan vs. Iowa: Iowa (-3)

As impressive as Iowa has been all season, save the loss to Arizona in week three, Michigan's offense is going to be tough to stop at home. Sure Michigan State came in and shut Denard Robinson down, but the Spartans have played the Wolverines well over the last few seasons and that loss wasn't really all that hard to see coming.

That said, Iowa has been nearly as effective, defensively, on the road as they have been at home.
Expect Mr. Robinson to rebound and steal a win from the Hawkeye's.

The Lady's Pick: Michigan

3. Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest: Virginia Tech (-22.5)

Wake Forest is atrocious, there is little doubt about that, but they have played a better brand of football over the last couple of weeks, and have nothing to lose by giving it all they've got against a Hokie squad that, honestly, still isn't all that impressive.

The Lady's Pick: Wake Forest

4. TCU vs BYU: TCU (-28)

TCU is good. BYU is bad. There is not much else you can say about these two teams or this match-up.
BYU's coach is currently wearing two hats (head coach and defensive coordinator) and that has to be tough, considering he's got a true freshman quarterback trying to run the offense.

The Cougars are a mess right now and, even though it seems crazy to think they will get beat by 28 points, that's what is likely to happen.

The Lady's Pick: TCU

5. Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State: Texas Tech (-3.5)

Texas Tech is still trying to find themselves under Tommy Tuberville, and it's not clear that they are anywhere near close to doing that right now—despite their 3-2 record.

The Lady's Pick: Oklahoma State 

6. Rice vs. Houston: Houston (-9)

As terrible as the defense of the Cougars is, the Owls might be worse. If Houston quarterbacks, David Piland or Terrance Broadway, want to get their respective games going, then this is the week to do it.

The Owls have little in the way of offense and don't defend well against the pass—a recipe for disaster when you're opponent specializes in air raids.

The Lady's Pick: Houston

7. Wisconsin vs. Ohio State: Ohio State (-4)

Hmmm, wonder what Bielema's card will tell him to do this week?

He better have a definite plan of action against the Buckeyes ,or he'll be the one feeling some kind of wronged after this game.

The Lady's Pick: Ohio State

8.  Auburn vs. Arkansas: Auburn (-3.5)

Auburn has been getting by on the grace and talent of Cam Newton—no doubt about it. However, the cardiac cats will have to go into arrest at some point, and it's highly possible that the Razorbacks will be just the team to send them rushing for the nearest ambulance.

The Lady's Pick: Arkansas

9. Georgia Tech vs Middle Tennessee State: Georgia Tech (-19)

This pick could come back to haunt me later, but, Dwight Dasher could end up being a problem for that developing Yellow Jacket defense. He's much better than he showed last week, and this could be just the game he needs to get his game back on the right track.

Georgia Tech will definitely win, but not by 19. 

The Lady's Pick: Middle Tennessee 


10. Florida vs. Mississippi State: Florida (-9)

Mississippi State might be scrappy but their quarterback situation leaves much to be desired. Expect the Gators to get back to their winning ways this weekend.

The Lady's Pick: Florida

With Pac-10 Prestige, The Utes Finally Have The Chance To Prove Their BCS Worth

The Utah Utes are the beneficiaries of the ‘Texas Two-Step’.

At this time last week, the Longhorns, along with several other teams, were on the minds of every college football pundit, fan, and journalist in the nation as they were rumored to be leaving the Big 12 .

However, the dream of a Pac-16 was left flailing in the wind by a last-minute offer by Dan Beebe—saving the Big 12 (now the Big 10?) and leaving the Pac looking for a 12th man to fill the void.

Colorado was already on board, but the Pac-10 needed a team that would not only make sense from a location standpoint, but could possibly offer a natural rivalry for Colorado.

Enter the Utah Utes.

Utah has been on the football scene, nationally, since 2003 when Urban Meyer led them to a 10-3 record. Prior to that point, they were mostly known for their success in both basketball, under coach Rick Majerus, and gymnastics (they have won 10 national titles playing as an independent).

Now they will get the BCS respect they have been yearning for since finishing undefeated in 2004.

The move was a no-brainer for the Utes. The Pac-10 offers more exposure and a bigger paycheck than the non-BCS Mountain West (they stand to see a television revenue bump of about $7-8 million dollars per season). Even still, the question remains as to what will become of their rivalry with Brigham Young University (BYU)? The ‘Holy War’ between the two football teams has been played yearly since 1890 and has a ton of old tradition and passion behind it among both fanbases.

Will it continue or be scrapped or will the two programs continue to meet on the gridiron?

How will Utah fare in their new conference? Well, that’s anyone’s guess.  The Utes have had success in the Pac-10 over the last five-years but they haven’t played the powers of the conference—most of their wins, since 2005, have come against the bottom-tiered teams in the conference (Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon State). They have not played Cal, USC, or Stanford under current coach, Kyle Whittingham.

Even still, it’s a step in the right direction for a program that hasn’t been given a shot to show and prove and all eyes will be on them to see just how real they truly are.

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